Industry News
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Restaurant & Retail

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Starbucks Sales are Declining
Ruben Valverde
Published: May 12, 2025
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Anti-Money  Laundering
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SAR STATS

The Price of Bitcoin & Anti-Money Laundering (AML) Activity
Ruben Valverde
Published: December 5,2024
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5
MINS READ
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Ruben Valverde
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Ruben Valverde
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MINS READ

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Introduction

Starbucks has never been on my radar. So then why do a Tableau project on Starbucks then? Starbucks is a great American brand that helped popularized coffee culture in the US. In 2024, I read that Starbucks sales were declining and that was apparently a big deal not only for the company of course but possibly also as an indicator of the greater health of the American economy at large. The objective of this project is to show insight into what Starbucks segments are experiencing, declining sales and profits.

Details on the Data

For this dashboard, I used Microsoft Excel to scrape all the financial data from Starbucks income statements going as far back as 2017. I went as far back as 2017 because I wanted to see a couple years of data prior to COVID-19. The process of collecting the data was by far the most time-consuming part of the data prep as some financial tables did not format properly and had to be manually entered.

As much as I wanted to import the data into Python, I ended up doing all the data manipulation/modeling data in Excel. I did this for two reasons (1) It was just a more efficient workflow process to keep everything already in Excel before importing spreadsheets into Tableau. (2) I wanted to visually see the income statement in Excel as this is likely the norm in the FP&A industry.  Just for reference, each year’s income statement amounted to less than a hundred rows of data.

In Excel, the main function I used to manipulate the data was the TRANSPOSE function. I also did things like creating new columns with calculated cells etc. Some of the data tables I scraped from the financial statements were very sparse; it was simply easier to copy and paste instead of using a more sophisticated method of aggregating the data.

The most complex part of the data prep was modeling the data correctly in Excel. In a way, I was essentially making my own datasets. There were a couple of times when working in Tableau, I had to go back into Excel to correctly model the data.

Insights I Found Interesting

The most interesting insight I gained from the data was learning that Starbucks International segment is Starbucks’ worst performing segment, with respect to net sales. More specifically, Starbucks saw its international licensed stores have its steepest sales decline from 2023 to 2024. Internationally speaking, Starbucks has its largest number of company-operated stores in China.  I googled “largest coffee shop in China” and found out that Luckin’ Coffee has recently surpassed Starbucks as the largest coffee shop in China. Coincidence? It appears Starbucks is facing a fierce direct competitor in China that it has never seen the like of in the United States.

As part of this project, I wanted to do a competitor analysis of other publicly traded coffee shops i.e. Black Rifle Coffee Company, Dutch Bros etc. but abandoned the idea for the fact that the market share Starbucks holds in the marketplace and coffee experience it offers its customers cannot be compared, in my opinion.

What I Learned from this Project

In creating this dashboard, I started out by displaying the total net sales, profits etc. for the entire company in a chronological order you would likely see in an income statement. I wanted to give the viewer context before diving into the Starbucks business segments.

Since this dashboard’s goal is to provide insight into Starbucks segments, I next introduce the segments in a way that makes them appear to be their own individual entity.  For the comparison bar charts, I have to give credit to Brittany Rosenau for her article in Medium showing how to make Comparison Bar Charts in a more visually appealing way.

I subsequently created the Average Net Sales Growth Rate bar chart to add more context to the YoY Net Sales Growth metric. It was in this bar chart that I created one of two calculated fields that I am most proud of. It took a little bit of tinkering to make the average net sales metric. The other calculated field I figured out how to write was a calculated field to specify the color of bars in bar graphs based on certain criteria. This can be seen throughout the entire Starbucks visualization.

The ‘Operational Expense as a % of Net Sales’ chart was created to help identify any possible instance where operational expenses might be increasing due to inflation and therefore would be reducing profit margins. On this chart, I wanted to add custom shapes but didn’t know what to add so I went with the stock shapes Tableau gives you.

I learned how to make a waterfall chart (bottom left) to visually show what net sales, operating expenses and operating profit appear like together in one chart. Like the Comparison Bar Chart, this is a visualization I had to refer to a tutorial because of the advanced logic /calculated fields involved in the building process. Unlike the comparison bar chart though, this type of bar chart has more practical usage and has been popularized by large consulting companies.  Despite this, this is the bar chart I thought about not including in the dashboard because it doesn’t quite flow with the story arc but decided to keep it at the last minute.

The Store Type Bar Chart (bottom right) ends the sales decline story arc in a cliffhanger. We found out which segment / store type had the greatest YoY sales decline, but this chart brings up many more questions.

Starbucks2024 financial statement states that China’s ‘competitive environment’ as one factor in Starbuck’s lower than expected performance. China is Starbucks' largest market outside the United States, so a decline in this market will have a significant impact overall for the company. It is just not China though. The Americas segment’s company owned stores also showed a significant decline in net sales as well.

It would be interesting to see in more detail what specific cities/states/regions of the United States had a greater sales decline than others etc. To answer those questions, you would probably want net sales store data to perform YoY same store analysis.

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Introduction

I got the idea to create a Tableau dashboard utilizing the Pareto Principle (also known as the 80/20 rule) after hearing a podcast host talk about productivity among groups/teams in the workplace. The podcast I was listening to articulated how at any given time 20% of the company's employees are responsible for producing 80% of the company's revenue, generally speaking. The Pareto Principle states that 80% of the outcomes are derived from 20% of the causes. With this concept in mind , I decided to apply the Pareto Principle to FinCen's SAR STATS anti-money laundering data and find out which counties in each US state are producing 80% of the money laundering activity in their state.

Details on the Data

The Pareto bar chart you see above incorporates 2022 data taken from Financial Crimes Enforcement Network's (FinCen) SAR STATS website, which houses a large repository of Suspicious Activity Report(SAR) data which is published periodically. For more context, I created a new column in the dataset titled, 'Typology Category'  to provide more clarity on what some typologies are referencing to. For example the typology 'Against Financial Institutions(s)'  by itself is very vague but when mapped to the appropriate FinCen category, this typology is referencing a Cyber Event/Attack. This feature can be seen in the data visualization.‍

For more context when comparing counties within each state, I added 2020 Census data and the total suspicious activity count from the previous year (2021). This data can be seen when hovering over the bar chart when viewing the data visualization in a desktop browser.

The number totals on the data visualizations are not the actual Suspicious Activity Report (SAR) totals but rather the total suspicious activity count i.e. the typology count in all SARs. This is my interpretation of FinCen's guidance.

There are three states that do not show a bar graph when selected and these three states are Nevada, Rhode Island and South Dakota. The bar graph does not appear for these states because the calculation I used in Tableau displays the number of counties that are equal to or less than 80%. Clark County (Nevada), Providence County (Rhode Island) and Lincoln County (South Dakota) each comprise a percentage greater than 80% and therefore a bar graph will not be displayed. The same can be said for any combination of selections in the ‘Typology Category’ and ‘AML Typology’ filters.

Insights I Found Interesting

Generally speaking,  a county with a high suspicious activity count such as Harris County, TX (Houston, TX) will translate to a county with a high Suspicious Activity Report count. The population of a county is one of the greatest factors in determining the number of SARs filed for a county. What I found interesting is that Dallas County, TX with a population of approximately 2.6 million has a lower suspicious activity count then Montgomery County, TX (a suburban county of Houston, TX) with a county population of approximately 600K. An even more interesting insight is when the dashboard is filtered only for the following two AML typologies of (1) Human Smuggling (2) Human Trafficking; Montgomery County, TX has about twice the suspicious activity count for these two typologies when compared to its much more populated neighbor Harris County, TX. My initial suspicion for this is that the high incident rate of illicit activity in Harris County, TX is spilling over into neighboring Montgomery County, TX.

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